Week 3 fantasy projections, graded
Every Week 3 projection was locked before kickoff and is graded here against what actually happened: the hits, the misses, and the full table.
The Week 3 forecast was locked on Tuesday, September 22, before any game kicked off, and covered 924 players. 366 of them recorded a final stat line and are graded here.
Across every graded player the average miss was 4.3 PPR points, and 68% of projections landed within five points of the real score (54% within three). Among the 126 players projected for at least 8 points, the ones that decide lineups, the average miss was 5.9.
Quarterbacks were the most predictable starters (average miss 5.3); tight ends were the least (7.1).
The biggest surprise was Sam Darnold, who scored 27.7 against a 0.8-point projection. The biggest letdown was Drake Maye: 3.8 points on a 18.0 projection.
How the projected starters did
Starters are the top projected players at each position in a 12-team league, chosen by the locked projection and never by the result.
| Position | Players graded | Average miss | Within 5 points | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks (top 12) | 12 | 5.3 | 67% | Projected 0.5 too high |
| Running backs (top 24) | 24 | 6.5 | 46% | Projected 1.2 too low |
| Wide receivers (top 36) | 36 | 6.1 | 44% | Projected 1.2 too low |
| Tight ends (top 12) | 12 | 7.1 | 50% | Projected 1.7 too low |
The projections that landed in Week 3
Players projected for at least 12 points, ordered by how close the forecast came.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith WR · PHI | 12.7 | 12.5 | -0.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX | 20.6 | 19.8 | -0.8 |
| Zay Flowers WR · BAL | 14.1 | 15.4 | +1.3 |
| Rashee Rice WR · KC | 14.4 | 15.8 | +1.4 |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | 19.1 | 17.5 | -1.6 |
| Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | 13.4 | 15.0 | +1.6 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN | 12.3 | 14.2 | +1.9 |
| Bryce Young QB · CAR | 15.7 | 13.6 | -2.0 |
Who beat the projection by the most
Every graded player, ordered by points scored above the locked forecast.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold QB · SEA | 0.8 | 27.7 | +26.9 |
| Case Keenum QB · CHI | 0.0 | 24.5 | +24.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | 17.3 | 41.4 | +24.1 |
| Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ | 2.7 | 23.5 | +20.8 |
| Marcus Mariota QB · WAS | 1.0 | 20.4 | +19.4 |
| Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 17.0 | 35.3 | +18.3 |
| Konata Mumpfield WR · LA | 1.2 | 19.3 | +18.1 |
| George Kittle TE · SF | 8.9 | 26.2 | +17.3 |
Who fell furthest short
Only players projected for a playable 8+ points count as a miss.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye QB · NE | 18.0 | 3.8 | -14.2 |
| De'Von Achane RB · MIA | 15.1 | 1.7 | -13.4 |
| Justin Jefferson WR · MIN | 15.4 | 5.2 | -10.2 |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR | 12.7 | 3.7 | -9.0 |
| Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC | 8.8 | 0.0 | -8.8 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX | 10.5 | 1.8 | -8.7 |
| Hunter Henry TE · NE | 10.1 | 1.5 | -8.6 |
| Tyjae Spears RB · TEN | 8.8 | 0.5 | -8.3 |
Top 120 Week 3 projections vs. actual scores
Ordered by the locked projection, so the table shows what the model expected before it shows what happened.
| Rank | Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 21.3 | 35.4 | +14.1 |
| 2 | Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX | 20.6 | 19.8 | -0.8 |
| 3 | Josh Allen QB · BUF | 19.1 | 17.5 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | 18.7 | 15.9 | -2.8 |
| 5 | Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | 18.4 | 24.8 | +6.4 |
| 6 | Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | 18.1 | 11.9 | -6.2 |
| 7 | Drake Maye QB · NE | 18.0 | 3.8 | -14.2 |
| 8 | Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | 17.3 | 41.4 | +24.1 |
| 9 | Lamar Jackson QB · BAL | 17.2 | 20.4 | +3.2 |
| 10 | Justin Herbert QB · LAC | 17.1 | 12.7 | -4.4 |
| 11 | Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 17.0 | 35.3 | +18.3 |
| 12 | Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | 16.8 | 21.6 | +4.8 |
| 13 | Kenneth Walker III RB · KC | 16.8 | 21.3 | +4.5 |
| 14 | Brock Purdy QB · SF | 16.7 | 31.3 | +14.6 |
| 15 | Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | 16.3 | 12.3 | -4.0 |
| 16 | Tyler Shough QB · NO | 16.2 | 23.8 | +7.6 |
| 17 | Malik Willis QB · MIA | 16.1 | 10.0 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Jalen Hurts QB · PHI | 15.8 | 12.6 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Bryce Young QB · CAR | 15.7 | 13.6 | -2.0 |
| 20 | Dak Prescott QB · DAL | 15.5 | 18.9 | +3.5 |
| 21 | Jonathan Taylor RB · IND | 15.5 | 9.2 | -6.3 |
| 22 | Justin Jefferson WR · MIN | 15.4 | 5.2 | -10.2 |
| 23 | Bo Nix QB · DEN | 15.4 | 24.1 | +8.8 |
| 24 | DK Metcalf WR · PIT | 15.3 | 12.1 | -3.2 |
| 25 | CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 15.2 | 20.2 | +5.0 |
| 26 | Baker Mayfield QB · TB | 15.1 | 11.3 | -3.8 |
| 27 | De'Von Achane RB · MIA | 15.1 | 1.7 | -13.4 |
| 28 | Parker Washington WR · JAX | 15.1 | 13.0 | -2.1 |
| 29 | Jared Goff QB · DET | 14.9 | 19.4 | +4.5 |
| 30 | C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | 14.9 | 11.7 | -3.2 |
| 31 | Joe Burrow QB · CIN | 14.8 | 22.6 | +7.7 |
| 32 | Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX | 14.8 | 19.4 | +4.6 |
| 33 | Chris Olave WR · NO | 14.7 | 19.7 | +5.0 |
| 34 | Rashee Rice WR · KC | 14.4 | 15.8 | +1.4 |
| 35 | Drake London WR · ATL | 14.4 | 28.4 | +14.0 |
| 36 | Zay Flowers WR · BAL | 14.1 | 15.4 | +1.3 |
| 37 | Kyren Williams RB · LA | 14.1 | 21.8 | +7.7 |
| 38 | Jordan Love QB · GB | 13.9 | 18.5 | +4.6 |
| 39 | Ladd McConkey WR · LAC | 13.8 | 10.6 | -3.2 |
| 40 | Kirk Cousins QB · LV | 13.8 | 22.2 | +8.5 |
| 41 | Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT | 13.7 | 22.7 | +9.0 |
| 42 | Breece Hall RB · NYJ | 13.6 | 8.5 | -5.1 |
| 43 | Kyler Murray QB · MIN | 13.6 | 10.4 | -3.2 |
| 44 | Geno Smith QB · NYJ | 13.6 | 26.0 | +12.5 |
| 45 | Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | 13.4 | 20.3 | +6.9 |
| 46 | Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | 13.4 | 15.0 | +1.6 |
| 47 | Matthew Stafford QB · LA | 13.3 | 20.9 | +7.6 |
| 48 | Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | 13.2 | 20.6 | +7.4 |
| 49 | Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ | 13.2 | 26.7 | +13.5 |
| 50 | James Cook III RB · BUF | 13.2 | 19.4 | +6.2 |
| 51 | Daniel Jones QB · IND | 13.2 | 7.9 | -5.3 |
| 52 | Omarion Hampton RB · LAC | 13.1 | 5.6 | -7.5 |
| 53 | Romeo Doubs WR · NE | 13.1 | 7.9 | -5.2 |
| 54 | Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI | 13.0 | 25.6 | +12.6 |
| 55 | Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE | 12.9 | 6.8 | -6.1 |
| 56 | D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | 12.9 | 10.8 | -2.1 |
| 57 | Derrick Henry RB · BAL | 12.9 | 21.9 | +9.0 |
| 58 | Christian Watson WR · GB | 12.8 | 22.6 | +9.8 |
| 59 | Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR | 12.7 | 3.7 | -9.0 |
| 60 | DeVonta Smith WR · PHI | 12.7 | 12.5 | -0.2 |
| 61 | Bucky Irving RB · TB | 12.6 | 7.8 | -4.8 |
| 62 | Cam Ward QB · TEN | 12.4 | 9.4 | -3.0 |
| 63 | Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE | 12.4 | 9.9 | -2.5 |
| 64 | Chase Brown RB · CIN | 12.4 | 8.9 | -3.5 |
| 65 | Brock Bowers TE · LV | 12.4 | 27.6 | +15.2 |
| 66 | Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN | 12.3 | 14.2 | +1.9 |
| 67 | Trey McBride TE · ARI | 12.3 | 16.5 | +4.2 |
| 68 | Terry McLaurin WR · WAS | 12.1 | 19.7 | +7.6 |
| 69 | Stefon Diggs WR · WAS | 12.0 | 7.3 | -4.7 |
| 70 | Javonte Williams RB · DAL | 12.0 | 18.3 | +6.3 |
| 71 | Travis Kelce TE · KC | 11.9 | 13.9 | +2.0 |
| 72 | Tre Tucker WR · LV | 11.8 | 8.3 | -3.5 |
| 73 | George Pickens WR · DAL | 11.6 | 15.2 | +3.6 |
| 74 | Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL | 11.2 | 14.0 | +2.8 |
| 75 | Emeka Egbuka WR · TB | 11.2 | 11.2 | +0.0 |
| 76 | Davante Adams WR · LA | 11.0 | 20.7 | +9.7 |
| 77 | Quentin Johnston WR · LAC | 10.9 | 7.0 | -3.9 |
| 78 | Michael Pittman Jr. WR · PIT | 10.8 | 3.6 | -7.2 |
| 79 | Tee Higgins WR · CIN | 10.8 | 21.0 | +10.2 |
| 80 | Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN | 10.7 | 6.4 | -4.3 |
| 81 | Saquon Barkley RB · PHI | 10.6 | 9.0 | -1.6 |
| 82 | Rachaad White RB · WAS | 10.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 83 | Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX | 10.5 | 1.8 | -8.7 |
| 84 | Michael Wilson WR · ARI | 10.4 | 25.9 | +15.5 |
| 85 | Courtland Sutton WR · DEN | 10.3 | 7.6 | -2.7 |
| 86 | Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN | 10.3 | 18.7 | +8.4 |
| 87 | Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE | 10.2 | 24.1 | +13.9 |
| 88 | DJ Moore WR · BUF | 10.2 | 12.7 | +2.5 |
| 89 | TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE | 10.1 | 3.9 | -6.2 |
| 90 | Jalen Coker WR · CAR | 10.1 | 3.8 | -6.3 |
| 91 | Hunter Henry TE · NE | 10.1 | 1.5 | -8.6 |
| 92 | Tucker Kraft TE · GB | 10.0 | 6.6 | -3.4 |
| 93 | DeMario Douglas WR · NE | 9.9 | 4.8 | -5.1 |
| 94 | Rome Odunze WR · CHI | 9.8 | 7.4 | -2.4 |
| 95 | Mack Hollins WR · NE | 9.7 | 14.7 | +5.0 |
| 96 | Mike Evans WR · SF | 9.7 | 12.4 | +2.7 |
| 97 | Travis Etienne Jr. RB · NO | 9.6 | 9.0 | -0.6 |
| 98 | Josh Downs WR · IND | 9.5 | 12.7 | +3.2 |
| 99 | Jameson Williams WR · DET | 9.2 | 8.9 | -0.3 |
| 100 | Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX | 9.2 | 17.0 | +7.8 |
| 101 | Tony Pollard RB · TEN | 9.2 | 13.6 | +4.4 |
| 102 | David Montgomery RB · HOU | 9.1 | 6.8 | -2.3 |
| 103 | Cam Skattebo RB · NYG | 9.0 | 13.0 | +4.0 |
| 104 | Dalton Schultz TE · HOU | 8.9 | 6.0 | -2.9 |
| 105 | Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | 8.9 | 3.8 | -5.1 |
| 106 | George Kittle TE · SF | 8.9 | 26.2 | +17.3 |
| 107 | Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA | 8.8 | 3.4 | -5.4 |
| 108 | Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC | 8.8 | 0.0 | -8.8 |
| 109 | Khalil Shakir WR · BUF | 8.8 | 1.6 | -7.2 |
| 110 | Tyjae Spears RB · TEN | 8.8 | 0.5 | -8.3 |
| 111 | Brenton Strange TE · JAX | 8.8 | 6.2 | -2.6 |
| 112 | Malik Washington WR · MIA | 8.7 | 11.1 | +2.4 |
| 113 | Sam LaPorta TE · DET | 8.7 | 7.4 | -1.3 |
| 114 | Xavier Worthy WR · KC | 8.5 | 4.0 | -4.5 |
| 115 | Cooper Kupp WR · SEA | 8.5 | 14.6 | +6.1 |
| 116 | Malik Nabers WR · NYG | 8.5 | 7.6 | -0.9 |
| 117 | Keenan Allen WR · IND | 8.4 | 18.3 | +9.9 |
| 118 | Deebo Samuel WR · SF | 8.4 | 15.4 | +7.0 |
| 119 | Jake Ferguson TE · DAL | 8.3 | 9.3 | +1.0 |
| 120 | Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB | 8.3 | 5.5 | -2.8 |
Forecast locked Tue, 22 Sep 2026 23:06:41 GMT · model avalanche_0.27.7_game_context_coverage · content hash e912d857e65b5025…. The hash is computed when the forecast is frozen, so the graded numbers cannot be revised afterwards. Scoring is PPR. Players without a final stat line are not graded.