2026 season · projection accuracy
Projection accuracy, week by week
Each week’s projections are frozen and hashed before kickoff, then graded in public. Nothing is edited after the fact, and the misses stay up next to the hits.
Season average miss4.5PPR points per player
Within 5 points67%of graded projections
Projections graded2,083across 6 weeks
2026 report cards
Every graded week
Open a week for the position breakdown, the closest calls, the biggest misses and the full projected-versus-actual table.
| Week | Graded | Average miss | Lineup-relevant miss | Within 5 | Biggest surprise | Biggest miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | 310 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 63% | Germie Bernard (+25.6) | Bo Nix (-13.6) |
| Week 5 | 343 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 67% | Isaiah Likely (+25.8) | Tua Tagovailoa (-15.9) |
| Week 4 | 358 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 66% | Tetairoa McMillan (+34.4) | Malik Willis (-13.4) |
| Week 3 | 366 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 68% | Sam Darnold (+26.9) | Drake Maye (-14.2) |
| Week 2 | 364 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 71% | Davante Adams (+28.2) | Jaxson Dart (-13.9) |
| Week 1 | 342 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 64% | Jalen Coker (+23.8) | Sam Darnold (-15.9) |
How grading works: each week’s forecast is frozen and hashed before the first kickoff. After the games, every player with a final stat line is compared with that frozen number in PPR scoring. Average miss is the mean absolute error. See the methodology for how the projections are built.