Week 5 fantasy projections, graded
Every Week 5 projection was locked before kickoff and is graded here against what actually happened: the hits, the misses, and the full table.
The Week 5 forecast was locked on Sunday, October 18, before any game kicked off, and covered 864 players. 343 of them recorded a final stat line and are graded here.
Across every graded player the average miss was 4.7 PPR points, and 67% of projections landed within five points of the real score (49% within three). Among the 112 players projected for at least 8 points, the ones that decide lineups, the average miss was 7.1.
Tight ends were the most predictable starters (average miss 4.9); wide receivers were the least (7.5).
The biggest surprise was Isaiah Likely, who scored 32.4 against a 6.6-point projection. The biggest letdown was Tua Tagovailoa: -0.6 points on a 15.3 projection.
How the projected starters did
Starters are the top projected players at each position in a 12-team league, chosen by the locked projection and never by the result.
| Position | Players graded | Average miss | Within 5 points | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks (top 12) | 12 | 7.0 | 42% | Even |
| Running backs (top 24) | 24 | 7.4 | 46% | Projected 1.9 too low |
| Wide receivers (top 36) | 36 | 7.5 | 39% | Projected 1.7 too low |
| Tight ends (top 12) | 12 | 4.9 | 58% | Projected 0.7 too high |
The projections that landed in Week 5
Players projected for at least 12 points, ordered by how close the forecast came.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry TE · NE | 13.6 | 13.4 | -0.2 |
| Terry McLaurin WR · WAS | 12.6 | 12.2 | -0.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX | 21.3 | 21.7 | +0.4 |
| Zay Flowers WR · BAL | 15.5 | 14.6 | -0.9 |
| Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 17.0 | 15.8 | -1.2 |
| Brock Purdy QB · SF | 17.4 | 16.2 | -1.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | 16.0 | 17.3 | +1.3 |
| Kirk Cousins QB · LV | 12.4 | 13.7 | +1.3 |
Who beat the projection by the most
Every graded player, ordered by points scored above the locked forecast.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely TE · NYG | 6.6 | 32.4 | +25.8 |
| Jameis Winston QB · NYG | 0.6 | 25.7 | +25.2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | 12.7 | 37.7 | +25.0 |
| Tyler Huntley QB · BAL | 0.5 | 24.0 | +23.5 |
| Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | 15.5 | 36.8 | +21.3 |
| Christian Watson WR · GB | 11.0 | 32.3 | +21.3 |
| DeMario Douglas WR · NE | 2.5 | 22.5 | +20.0 |
| Bucky Irving RB · TB | 11.5 | 31.5 | +20.0 |
Who fell furthest short
Only players projected for a playable 8+ points count as a miss.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa QB · ATL | 15.3 | -0.6 | -15.9 |
| Tyler Shough QB · NO | 14.3 | -0.2 | -14.5 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX | 11.8 | 0.0 | -11.8 |
| CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 14.4 | 2.9 | -11.5 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE | 12.3 | 1.4 | -10.9 |
| Romeo Doubs WR · NE | 13.5 | 2.6 | -10.9 |
| Sam Darnold QB · SEA | 19.2 | 8.3 | -10.9 |
| Justin Herbert QB · LAC | 20.9 | 10.2 | -10.6 |
Top 120 Week 5 projections vs. actual scores
Ordered by the locked projection, so the table shows what the model expected before it shows what happened.
| Rank | Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye QB · NE | 21.8 | 39.5 | +17.7 |
| 2 | Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX | 21.3 | 21.7 | +0.4 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert QB · LAC | 20.9 | 10.2 | -10.6 |
| 4 | Sam Darnold QB · SEA | 19.2 | 8.3 | -10.9 |
| 5 | Dak Prescott QB · DAL | 18.9 | 12.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT | 18.7 | 22.0 | +3.3 |
| 7 | Joe Burrow QB · CIN | 18.7 | 24.6 | +5.9 |
| 8 | Puka Nacua WR · LA | 17.9 | 37.7 | +19.8 |
| 9 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 17.9 | 22.8 | +4.9 |
| 10 | Brock Purdy QB · SF | 17.4 | 16.2 | -1.2 |
| 11 | Malik Willis QB · MIA | 17.3 | 18.9 | +1.6 |
| 12 | Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | 17.1 | 19.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 17.0 | 15.8 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Jalen Hurts QB · PHI | 16.8 | 13.0 | -3.8 |
| 15 | Josh Allen QB · BUF | 16.7 | 30.5 | +13.8 |
| 16 | Bo Nix QB · DEN | 16.6 | 7.9 | -8.7 |
| 17 | C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | 16.5 | 20.9 | +4.4 |
| 18 | Jared Goff QB · DET | 16.5 | 28.9 | +12.5 |
| 19 | Chase Brown RB · CIN | 16.3 | 7.0 | -9.3 |
| 20 | Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | 16.0 | 17.3 | +1.3 |
| 21 | Matthew Stafford QB · LA | 15.8 | 27.3 | +11.6 |
| 22 | Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ | 15.6 | 23.4 | +7.8 |
| 23 | Geno Smith QB · NYJ | 15.5 | 10.0 | -5.5 |
| 24 | Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | 15.5 | 36.8 | +21.3 |
| 25 | Zay Flowers WR · BAL | 15.5 | 14.6 | -0.9 |
| 26 | DK Metcalf WR · PIT | 15.3 | 5.3 | -10.0 |
| 27 | Tua Tagovailoa QB · ATL | 15.3 | -0.6 | -15.9 |
| 28 | Derrick Henry RB · BAL | 14.9 | 21.0 | +6.1 |
| 29 | Kyren Williams RB · LA | 14.9 | 19.6 | +4.7 |
| 30 | Jayden Daniels QB · WAS | 14.7 | 32.3 | +17.6 |
| 31 | Jordan Love QB · GB | 14.5 | 25.3 | +10.8 |
| 32 | Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | 14.4 | 12.9 | -1.5 |
| 33 | Daniel Jones QB · IND | 14.4 | 11.1 | -3.3 |
| 34 | CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 14.4 | 2.9 | -11.5 |
| 35 | Nico Collins WR · HOU | 14.4 | 10.6 | -3.8 |
| 36 | Tyler Shough QB · NO | 14.3 | -0.2 | -14.5 |
| 37 | Jonathan Taylor RB · IND | 14.2 | 11.2 | -3.0 |
| 38 | Brock Bowers TE · LV | 14.1 | 23.0 | +8.9 |
| 39 | Omarion Hampton RB · LAC | 13.7 | 4.9 | -8.8 |
| 40 | Kyler Murray QB · MIN | 13.7 | 18.3 | +4.6 |
| 41 | Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | 13.6 | 10.7 | -2.9 |
| 42 | Hunter Henry TE · NE | 13.6 | 13.4 | -0.2 |
| 43 | Romeo Doubs WR · NE | 13.5 | 2.6 | -10.9 |
| 44 | Parker Washington WR · JAX | 13.5 | 30.4 | +16.9 |
| 45 | Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI | 13.4 | 25.3 | +11.9 |
| 46 | Chris Olave WR · NO | 13.2 | 8.6 | -4.6 |
| 47 | Tee Higgins WR · CIN | 13.0 | 4.2 | -8.8 |
| 48 | Javonte Williams RB · DAL | 12.8 | 14.2 | +1.4 |
| 49 | Justin Jefferson WR · MIN | 12.8 | 18.8 | +6.0 |
| 50 | Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | 12.7 | 37.7 | +25.0 |
| 51 | Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX | 12.6 | 5.7 | -6.9 |
| 52 | Terry McLaurin WR · WAS | 12.6 | 12.2 | -0.4 |
| 53 | Cam Ward QB · TEN | 12.5 | 5.0 | -7.5 |
| 54 | D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | 12.5 | 17.3 | +4.8 |
| 55 | Kirk Cousins QB · LV | 12.4 | 13.7 | +1.3 |
| 56 | Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE | 12.3 | 1.4 | -10.9 |
| 57 | Trey McBride TE · ARI | 12.3 | 21.6 | +9.3 |
| 58 | Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN | 12.3 | 18.7 | +6.4 |
| 59 | Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE | 12.2 | 17.5 | +5.3 |
| 60 | Drake London WR · ATL | 12.0 | 18.8 | +6.8 |
| 61 | Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN | 11.8 | 11.3 | -0.5 |
| 62 | Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX | 11.8 | 0.0 | -11.8 |
| 63 | James Cook III RB · BUF | 11.8 | 22.8 | +11.0 |
| 64 | George Pickens WR · DAL | 11.7 | 28.0 | +16.3 |
| 65 | TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE | 11.6 | 4.8 | -6.8 |
| 66 | Bucky Irving RB · TB | 11.5 | 31.5 | +20.0 |
| 67 | Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE | 11.2 | 8.0 | -3.2 |
| 68 | Dalton Schultz TE · HOU | 11.2 | 6.0 | -5.2 |
| 69 | Brenton Strange TE · JAX | 11.1 | 13.8 | +2.7 |
| 70 | Christian Watson WR · GB | 11.0 | 32.3 | +21.3 |
| 71 | Dallas Goedert TE · PHI | 11.0 | 9.8 | -1.2 |
| 72 | Greg Dulcich TE · MIA | 10.9 | 9.7 | -1.2 |
| 73 | Rome Odunze WR · CHI | 10.8 | 5.0 | -5.8 |
| 74 | Emeka Egbuka WR · TB | 10.8 | 17.2 | +6.4 |
| 75 | George Kittle TE · SF | 10.8 | 7.4 | -3.4 |
| 76 | Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB | 10.8 | 7.0 | -3.8 |
| 77 | Colston Loveland TE · CHI | 10.7 | 3.9 | -6.8 |
| 78 | Davante Adams WR · LA | 10.7 | 22.1 | +11.4 |
| 79 | Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL | 10.5 | 15.2 | +4.7 |
| 80 | Kenny Gainwell RB · TB | 10.3 | 5.8 | -4.5 |
| 81 | Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE | 10.3 | 4.9 | -5.4 |
| 82 | Cade Otton TE · TB | 10.3 | 5.5 | -4.8 |
| 83 | Juwan Johnson TE · NO | 10.2 | 5.6 | -4.6 |
| 84 | Khalil Shakir WR · BUF | 10.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| 85 | Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA | 10.0 | 4.3 | -5.7 |
| 86 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS | 10.0 | 14.2 | +4.2 |
| 87 | Tucker Kraft TE · GB | 9.9 | 11.6 | +1.7 |
| 88 | Malik Nabers WR · NYG | 9.9 | 29.1 | +19.2 |
| 89 | Tony Pollard RB · TEN | 9.9 | 5.2 | -4.7 |
| 90 | Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | 9.8 | 12.2 | +2.4 |
| 91 | Tre Tucker WR · LV | 9.8 | 7.5 | -2.3 |
| 92 | David Montgomery RB · HOU | 9.8 | 1.1 | -8.7 |
| 93 | Sam LaPorta TE · DET | 9.7 | 19.8 | +10.1 |
| 94 | Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT | 9.7 | 21.5 | +11.8 |
| 95 | Jameson Williams WR · DET | 9.6 | 18.7 | +9.1 |
| 96 | Mike Evans WR · SF | 9.6 | 26.3 | +16.7 |
| 97 | Mark Andrews TE · BAL | 9.5 | 4.8 | -4.7 |
| 98 | T.J. Hockenson TE · MIN | 9.2 | 1.7 | -7.5 |
| 99 | Luther Burden III WR · CHI | 9.1 | 8.9 | -0.2 |
| 100 | Rachaad White RB · WAS | 9.1 | 3.0 | -6.1 |
| 101 | Keenan Allen WR · IND | 9.0 | 9.5 | +0.5 |
| 102 | Alvin Kamara RB · NO | 9.0 | 2.6 | -6.4 |
| 103 | Tyler Warren TE · IND | 8.8 | 21.4 | +12.6 |
| 104 | Deebo Samuel WR · SF | 8.7 | 2.5 | -6.2 |
| 105 | Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN | 8.6 | 4.8 | -3.8 |
| 106 | Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | 8.5 | 3.7 | -4.8 |
| 107 | Josh Downs WR · IND | 8.5 | 7.7 | -0.8 |
| 108 | Courtland Sutton WR · DEN | 8.5 | 9.8 | +1.3 |
| 109 | Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI | 8.5 | 3.6 | -4.9 |
| 110 | Jake Ferguson TE · DAL | 8.5 | 4.9 | -3.6 |
| 111 | Woody Marks RB · HOU | 8.2 | 12.5 | +4.3 |
| 112 | RJ Harvey RB · DEN | 8.1 | 0.7 | -7.4 |
| 113 | Evan Engram TE · DEN | 8.0 | 9.5 | +1.5 |
| 114 | Cooper Kupp WR · SEA | 7.9 | 3.5 | -4.4 |
| 115 | Malik Washington WR · MIA | 7.8 | 12.1 | +4.3 |
| 116 | Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS | 7.7 | 10.0 | +2.3 |
| 117 | Michael Wilson WR · ARI | 7.6 | 7.3 | -0.4 |
| 118 | AJ Barner TE · SEA | 7.6 | 5.0 | -2.6 |
| 119 | Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX | 7.5 | 11.6 | +4.1 |
| 120 | Mike Gesicki TE · CIN | 7.2 | 7.4 | +0.2 |
Forecast locked Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:58:51 GMT · model avalanche_0.27.6_bucket_distribution_guard · content hash 1883a0b6252a336b…. The hash is computed when the forecast is frozen, so the graded numbers cannot be revised afterwards. Scoring is PPR. Players without a final stat line are not graded.