Week 6 fantasy projections, graded
Every Week 6 projection was locked before kickoff and is graded here against what actually happened: the hits, the misses, and the full table.
The Week 6 forecast was locked on Sunday, October 18, before any game kicked off, and covered 812 players. 310 of them recorded a final stat line and are graded here.
Across every graded player the average miss was 4.6 PPR points, and 63% of projections landed within five points of the real score (51% within three). Among the 104 players projected for at least 8 points, the ones that decide lineups, the average miss was 5.7.
Tight ends were the most predictable starters (average miss 5.2); running backs were the least (7.3).
The biggest surprise was Germie Bernard, who scored 25.7 against a 0.1-point projection. The biggest letdown was Bo Nix: 4.5 points on a 18.1 projection.
How the projected starters did
Starters are the top projected players at each position in a 12-team league, chosen by the locked projection and never by the result.
| Position | Players graded | Average miss | Within 5 points | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks (top 12) | 12 | 5.4 | 50% | Projected 2.5 too high |
| Running backs (top 24) | 24 | 7.3 | 25% | Projected 0.7 too low |
| Wide receivers (top 36) | 36 | 5.4 | 58% | Even |
| Tight ends (top 12) | 12 | 5.2 | 58% | Projected 1.7 too high |
The projections that landed in Week 6
Players projected for at least 12 points, ordered by how close the forecast came.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry TE · NE | 14.7 | 14.8 | +0.1 |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | 18.4 | 18.3 | -0.1 |
| Drake London WR · ATL | 12.6 | 12.2 | -0.4 |
| Brock Purdy QB · SF | 16.8 | 17.4 | +0.5 |
| Caleb Williams QB · CHI | 15.6 | 16.5 | +0.9 |
| George Pickens WR · DAL | 12.2 | 13.3 | +1.1 |
| Chris Olave WR · NO | 15.5 | 14.3 | -1.2 |
| Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | 14.6 | 15.8 | +1.2 |
Who beat the projection by the most
Every graded player, ordered by points scored above the locked forecast.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germie Bernard WR · PIT | 0.1 | 25.7 | +25.6 |
| Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL | 0.7 | 23.1 | +22.4 |
| Omar Cooper Jr. WR · NYJ | 0.2 | 22.3 | +22.1 |
| Malik Nabers WR · NYG | 9.4 | 28.5 | +19.1 |
| Carnell Tate WR · TEN | 0.2 | 19.0 | +18.8 |
| Matthew Golden WR · GB | 3.7 | 22.4 | +18.7 |
| Jaylin Noel WR · HOU | 2.7 | 20.7 | +18.0 |
| DeMario Douglas WR · NE | 2.4 | 19.6 | +17.2 |
Who fell furthest short
Only players projected for a playable 8+ points count as a miss.
| Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix QB · DEN | 18.1 | 4.5 | -13.6 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| A.J. Brown WR · NE | 18.4 | 5.7 | -12.7 |
| Justin Herbert QB · LAC | 20.6 | 8.8 | -11.9 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE | 13.5 | 1.9 | -11.6 |
| Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 18.0 | 7.3 | -10.7 |
| Ladd McConkey WR · LAC | 13.0 | 2.7 | -10.3 |
| Juwan Johnson TE · NO | 10.3 | 0.0 | -10.3 |
Top 120 Week 6 projections vs. actual scores
Ordered by the locked projection, so the table shows what the model expected before it shows what happened.
| Rank | Player | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye QB · NE | 21.9 | 23.8 | +1.9 |
| 2 | Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX | 20.8 | 27.3 | +6.5 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert QB · LAC | 20.6 | 8.8 | -11.9 |
| 4 | Puka Nacua WR · LA | 19.1 | 14.0 | -5.1 |
| 5 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 18.4 | 25.4 | +7.0 |
| 6 | Josh Allen QB · BUF | 18.4 | 18.3 | -0.1 |
| 7 | A.J. Brown WR · NE | 18.4 | 5.7 | -12.7 |
| 8 | Matthew Stafford QB · LA | 18.3 | 16.9 | -1.4 |
| 9 | Tyler Shough QB · NO | 18.2 | 27.0 | +8.7 |
| 10 | Bo Nix QB · DEN | 18.1 | 4.5 | -13.6 |
| 11 | Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT | 18.0 | 16.0 | -2.0 |
| 12 | Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 18.0 | 7.3 | -10.7 |
| 13 | Sam Darnold QB · SEA | 17.6 | 11.0 | -6.6 |
| 14 | Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | 17.4 | 10.5 | -6.9 |
| 15 | Brock Purdy QB · SF | 16.8 | 17.4 | +0.5 |
| 16 | Geno Smith QB · NYJ | 16.6 | 12.0 | -4.6 |
| 17 | Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | 16.6 | 9.8 | -6.8 |
| 18 | Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | 16.5 | 30.7 | +14.2 |
| 19 | Dak Prescott QB · DAL | 16.3 | 11.0 | -5.3 |
| 20 | C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | 16.2 | 23.0 | +6.8 |
| 21 | Jonathan Taylor RB · IND | 15.9 | 21.1 | +5.2 |
| 22 | Zay Flowers WR · BAL | 15.7 | 12.7 | -3.0 |
| 23 | Caleb Williams QB · CHI | 15.6 | 16.5 | +0.9 |
| 24 | Kyren Williams RB · LA | 15.5 | 9.7 | -5.8 |
| 25 | Chris Olave WR · NO | 15.5 | 14.3 | -1.2 |
| 26 | Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ | 15.2 | 8.4 | -6.8 |
| 27 | Daniel Jones QB · IND | 15.0 | 13.8 | -1.3 |
| 28 | Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI | 14.9 | 6.9 | -8.0 |
| 29 | Jayden Daniels QB · WAS | 14.7 | 21.0 | +6.3 |
| 30 | Hunter Henry TE · NE | 14.7 | 14.8 | +0.1 |
| 31 | Jordan Love QB · GB | 14.6 | 20.2 | +5.6 |
| 32 | Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | 14.6 | 15.8 | +1.2 |
| 33 | Brock Bowers TE · LV | 14.6 | 11.0 | -3.6 |
| 34 | Derrick Henry RB · BAL | 14.3 | 5.0 | -9.3 |
| 35 | Romeo Doubs WR · NE | 14.2 | 11.2 | -3.0 |
| 36 | Bryce Young QB · CAR | 14.1 | 19.8 | +5.8 |
| 37 | CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 14.1 | 16.0 | +1.9 |
| 38 | Kenneth Walker III RB · KC | 13.6 | 27.9 | +14.3 |
| 39 | Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE | 13.5 | 1.9 | -11.6 |
| 40 | Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| 41 | Nico Collins WR · HOU | 13.4 | 10.9 | -2.5 |
| 42 | Quentin Johnston WR · LAC | 13.3 | 6.7 | -6.6 |
| 43 | Stefon Diggs WR · WAS | 13.2 | 16.4 | +3.2 |
| 44 | Parker Washington WR · JAX | 13.1 | 10.4 | -2.7 |
| 45 | Ladd McConkey WR · LAC | 13.0 | 2.7 | -10.3 |
| 46 | Cam Ward QB · TEN | 12.9 | 6.8 | -6.2 |
| 47 | Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN | 12.8 | 5.2 | -7.6 |
| 48 | DK Metcalf WR · PIT | 12.6 | 20.3 | +7.7 |
| 49 | Drake London WR · ATL | 12.6 | 12.2 | -0.4 |
| 50 | D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | 12.6 | 23.0 | +10.4 |
| 51 | Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE | 12.5 | 3.6 | -8.9 |
| 52 | James Cook III RB · BUF | 12.3 | 24.3 | +12.0 |
| 53 | Omarion Hampton RB · LAC | 12.3 | 7.9 | -4.4 |
| 54 | TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE | 12.2 | 3.0 | -9.2 |
| 55 | George Pickens WR · DAL | 12.2 | 13.3 | +1.1 |
| 56 | Kenny Gainwell RB · TB | 12.1 | 3.4 | -8.7 |
| 57 | Bucky Irving RB · TB | 12.0 | 6.9 | -5.1 |
| 58 | Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX | 12.0 | 13.3 | +1.3 |
| 59 | DeVonta Smith WR · PHI | 12.0 | 20.5 | +8.5 |
| 60 | Terry McLaurin WR · WAS | 11.9 | 3.7 | -8.2 |
| 61 | Kirk Cousins QB · LV | 11.7 | 18.5 | +6.8 |
| 62 | Travis Kelce TE · KC | 11.6 | 9.3 | -2.3 |
| 63 | Trey McBride TE · ARI | 11.5 | 12.3 | +0.8 |
| 64 | Davante Adams WR · LA | 11.5 | 6.9 | -4.6 |
| 65 | Javonte Williams RB · DAL | 11.3 | 13.0 | +1.7 |
| 66 | Tony Pollard RB · TEN | 11.2 | 7.6 | -3.6 |
| 67 | Brenton Strange TE · JAX | 11.1 | 9.4 | -1.7 |
| 68 | Colston Loveland TE · CHI | 11.0 | 18.5 | +7.5 |
| 69 | Rico Dowdle RB · PIT | 11.0 | 7.9 | -3.1 |
| 70 | Christian Watson WR · GB | 11.0 | 9.4 | -1.6 |
| 71 | Rome Odunze WR · CHI | 10.8 | 6.9 | -3.9 |
| 72 | Tre Tucker WR · LV | 10.8 | 26.7 | +15.9 |
| 73 | Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB | 10.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 |
| 74 | Emeka Egbuka WR · TB | 10.7 | 17.8 | +7.1 |
| 75 | Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE | 10.5 | 10.9 | +0.4 |
| 76 | Dalton Schultz TE · HOU | 10.5 | 7.3 | -3.2 |
| 77 | Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL | 10.4 | 23.0 | +12.6 |
| 78 | Juwan Johnson TE · NO | 10.3 | 0.0 | -10.3 |
| 79 | Tucker Kraft TE · GB | 10.2 | 8.7 | -1.5 |
| 80 | Luther Burden III WR · CHI | 9.9 | 17.5 | +7.6 |
| 81 | Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | 9.9 | 9.5 | -0.4 |
| 82 | Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT | 9.9 | 3.1 | -6.8 |
| 83 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG | 9.9 | 18.5 | +8.6 |
| 84 | Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN | 9.7 | 6.4 | -3.3 |
| 85 | Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR | 9.7 | 14.6 | +4.9 |
| 86 | Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA | 9.7 | 11.8 | +2.1 |
| 87 | Alvin Kamara RB · NO | 9.7 | 14.9 | +5.2 |
| 88 | Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | 9.6 | 19.1 | +9.5 |
| 89 | Malik Nabers WR · NYG | 9.4 | 28.5 | +19.1 |
| 90 | Mark Andrews TE · BAL | 9.3 | 1.4 | -7.9 |
| 91 | Rachaad White RB · WAS | 9.3 | 15.7 | +6.4 |
| 92 | George Kittle TE · SF | 9.1 | 17.9 | +8.8 |
| 93 | Mike Evans WR · SF | 9.1 | 12.4 | +3.3 |
| 94 | Cade Otton TE · TB | 9.0 | 1.4 | -7.6 |
| 95 | Khalil Shakir WR · BUF | 9.0 | 13.4 | +4.4 |
| 96 | Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI | 8.8 | 5.8 | -3.0 |
| 97 | Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | 8.8 | 10.8 | +2.0 |
| 98 | Dallas Goedert TE · PHI | 8.6 | 12.1 | +3.5 |
| 99 | Evan Engram TE · DEN | 8.5 | 3.3 | -5.2 |
| 100 | AJ Barner TE · SEA | 8.2 | 4.6 | -3.6 |
| 101 | Josh Downs WR · IND | 8.2 | 8.7 | +0.5 |
| 102 | Jake Ferguson TE · DAL | 8.2 | 3.3 | -4.9 |
| 103 | Michael Wilson WR · ARI | 8.2 | 7.2 | -1.0 |
| 104 | Xavier Worthy WR · KC | 8.2 | 14.3 | +6.1 |
| 105 | RJ Harvey RB · DEN | 7.9 | 14.6 | +6.7 |
| 106 | Keenan Allen WR · IND | 7.9 | 16.2 | +8.3 |
| 107 | Woody Marks RB · HOU | 7.7 | 10.1 | +2.4 |
| 108 | Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX | 7.6 | 24.7 | +17.1 |
| 109 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX | 7.5 | 5.5 | -2.0 |
| 110 | Jalen Coker WR · CAR | 7.5 | 15.7 | +8.2 |
| 111 | Courtland Sutton WR · DEN | 7.5 | 3.9 | -3.6 |
| 112 | Cooper Kupp WR · SEA | 7.5 | 10.0 | +2.5 |
| 113 | J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN | 7.4 | 13.6 | +6.2 |
| 114 | Calvin Ridley WR · TEN | 7.2 | 0.0 | -7.2 |
| 115 | Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS | 7.0 | 13.9 | +6.9 |
| 116 | Dontayvion Wicks WR · PHI | 6.9 | 4.4 | -2.5 |
| 117 | Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA | 6.7 | 5.2 | -1.5 |
| 118 | Isaiah Likely TE · NYG | 6.7 | 23.9 | +17.2 |
| 119 | Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI | 6.6 | 6.4 | -0.2 |
| 120 | Darren Waller TE · CAR | 6.3 | 0.0 | -6.3 |
Forecast locked Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:58:54 GMT · model avalanche_0.27.6_bucket_distribution_guard · content hash a89757eda40ee0be…. The hash is computed when the forecast is frozen, so the graded numbers cannot be revised afterwards. Scoring is PPR. Players without a final stat line are not graded.